MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPPER MI...FAR NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 171949Z - 172045Z
   
   A SMALL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND
   FAR NRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   BOUNDARY REPRESENTING THE MERGED EFFECTS OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   AND A LAKE BREEZE GENERATED OFF OF THE NRN EXTENT OF LAKE MI. ASCENT
   IS BEING AUGMENTED BY A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING LAKE
   SUPERIOR. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ONLY BE
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
   500 J/KG. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 35 KT
   DRIVEN BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF THE VORT MAX COULD
   RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES YIELDING A
   THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL
   SVR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL THREAT
   WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...AND A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   LAT...LON   46038372 45738422 45708531 45978607 46278557 46458456
               46398407 46038372