MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...MUCH OF NC...FAR ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121746Z - 122015Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
   SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT OWING TO THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1013-MB LOW OVER FAR ERN
   SC JUST EAST OF CHARLESTON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT EXTENDING
   ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY...A SFC
   TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD/WSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO PARTS OF SRN GA.
   ALSO...THE AXIS OF A WWD-MOVING INVERTED TROUGH...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   MAXIMUM IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
   PER GPS DATA/...EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE LOW INTO ERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
   CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION IS
   RESULTING IN 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20 TO 30 KT...WHICH
   WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS
   HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER AREA RADAR IMAGERY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN
   AREAS WHERE MERGING COLD POOLS SUPPORT LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH. THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL NC AND ERN GA...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEST
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OWING TO LIMITED CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   VALUES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
   
   ..COHEN.. 08/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34967703 34197787 33567899 32708000 31838085 31788167
               32808261 34408407 35528372 36468223 36418148 36088079
               35967983 36107904 36217810 35877710 34967703