MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...
   
   VALID 120645Z - 120845Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770
   CONTINUES.
   
   BOWED MCS WITH EMBEDDED/HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CLUSTERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
   SEWD ABOUT 35 KT OVER SERN NEB AND SHOULD ENTER ADJOINING PORTIONS
   NE KS AND NWRN MO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUSTS. 
   ATTM...THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL FOR ADDITIONAL WW...BUT WILL MONITOR
   FOR THAT POSSIBILITY SHOULD INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION TRENDS
   COMPEL.
   
   SFC OBSERVING SITES CROSSED BY THIS COMPLEX...I.E.
   BIE/LNK/JYR/AUH...HAVE BEEN SAMPLING 35-45 KT/SUB-SVR GUSTS DURING
   PAST COUPLE HOURS AS MOST INTENSE SEGMENT OF COMPLEX PASSED OVHD. 
   DIABATIC SFC COOLING TO ITS SE GRADUALLY WILL INCREASE STATIC
   STABILITY AND DEPTH OF NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER...THEREBY BOOSTING
   MLCINH AND DECREASING DCAPE.  BY CONTRAST...MATURE NATURE OF
   ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SUGGESTS FORCED ASCENT OF BUOYANT PARCELS
   ROOTED NOT FAR ABOVE SFC WILL CONTINUE...MAINTAINING SOME OF THIS
   CONVECTION SEWD ALONG AND W OF MO VALLEY ACROSS TOP/STJ/MKC
   CORRIDOR.  PRECIP LOADING MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SPORADIC
   POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS...ESPECIALLY
   CONSIDERING SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER EVIDENT IN ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT
   BETWEEN 700-850 MB.  HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO IS LIKELY WITH 1-2
   INCH/HOUR RATES...LOCALIZED TO 3 INCHES/HOUR.
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IS BECOMING ALIGNED ORTHOGONAL TO
   LLJ...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SWLY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT SPEEDS OF
   AROUND 25-35 KT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS KS/NEB BORDER REGION.  RELATED
   REGIME OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION...AND ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT TO LFC ATOP OUTFLOW POOL...MAY HELP TO DEVELOP/SUSTAIN
   ACTIVITY TRAINING SEWD JUST NE AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY. 
   STG-SVR TSTMS ALSO MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER NW ACROSS
   NRN/CENTRAL NEB AS WELL...PRODUCING ESTD MRGL SVR HAIL IN SHERIDAN
   COUNTY NEB AS OF 627Z.  ADDITIONAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE MAINTAINED
   AMIDST ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/12/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40379932 42910282 42890124 40719678 40729593 39149382
               39089652 40309918 40379932