MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS / WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 042006Z - 042100Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING STORMS.  A WATCH IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM N OF TUP TO NEAR
   MSL WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED SERN MO MCS HAS
   IMPINGED ON NWRN EDGE OF COLD POOL ATTENDANT TO ONGOING STORMS OVER
   NRN/CNTRL AL.  AIR MASS FROM TUP SWD/SWWD TOWARD JAN/MEI HAS BECOME
   QUITE HOT...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  CURRENTLY...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
   DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE A MESOSCALE COLD
   POOL...ALLOWING FOR A SWD/SWWD PROPAGATION GIVEN THE DEEP-LAYER
   STEERING FLOW.  CURRENT ANTICIPATION IS THAT THE DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE. 
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM MERGERS AND
   UPSCALE COLD POOL GROWTH.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   LAT...LON   34538923 34878863 34908794 34538744 33528766 32918801
               32708874 32718945 33008982 33838976 34538923