MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1855
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NERN CO...SERN WY...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB/NEB
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041918Z - 042045Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/NERN CO...SERN WY...NWRN KS AND SWRN
   NEB/NEB PANHANDLE. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   EXIST. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 19Z SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
   SWRN KS...WITH CONFLUENT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND ANOTHER CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NEWD
   TOWARD FAR SERN NEB. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S
   ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH
   PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S
   ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO MID 60S OVER WRN NEB AND KS/. THOUGH
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL AID IN
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOME
   VEERING IS NOTED IN VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
   SPEEDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 20 KT/. THIS MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-/MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   38920337 42560529 42310272 40940071 39860024 38680072
               38920337