MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1842
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 031901Z - 032030Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY...WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
   HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
   NERN WY/FAR WRN SD...WITH A LEE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS FAR ERN WY. COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S
   OVER ERN SD/STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE
   ALONG LEE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   ENVIRONMENT IS FURTHER CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 30 KT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS SLOW TO DESTABILIZE...AND MAY LIMIT
   THE LONGEVITY OF STORMS AS THEY ENTER WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.
   GIVEN THE MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...A WW
   DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
   
   LAT...LON   44570536 45370391 45040252 42860231 41050311 41070519
               44570536