MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NWRN/NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 011833Z - 011930Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
   WRN/CENTRAL ND AND NWRN/NRN SD.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A COUPLE
   OF TSTMS HAD ALREADY FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT IN FAR SWRN ND TO FAR SERN MT.  AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF THE
   COLD FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ PER
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AS STORMS MOVE E/NEWD INTO
   THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.  SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE
   PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST A POTENTIAL LINEAR STRUCTURE...
   ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  OTHERWISE...STORMS
   FORMING E OF THE FRONT SHOULD POSE A GREATER SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   47770232 48280201 48319987 46729962 45120042 44750194
               44830357 45380379 47770232