MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ME...NH...MA...RI...CT...SERN NY...ERN
   PA...NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 011815Z - 011945Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME...NH...MA...RI...CT...SERN
   NY...ERN PA AND NRN NJ. HOWEVER...UNLESS AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
   THREAT BECOMES APPARENT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   AT 18Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG A ZONE
   OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AHEAD OF A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER-LEVEL
   IMPULSES. SURFACE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
   80S TO LOW 90S OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70F OVER PA/SERN NY/NRN NJ TO
   AROUND 60F IN ME. A ZONE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
   1000-3000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE
   OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...IF STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE
   A COLD POOL AT THE MESOSCALE...THEN A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   46707000 46976970 46966874 44396955 43337094 41797113
               40527531 40817788 42327332 43477188 46707000