MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0627 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242327Z - 250100Z
   
   A FEW SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   EARLY EVENING SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI...WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS ORIENTED
   NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND INTERSECTING THE FRONT NEAR HTL. LATEST VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GLACIATING CUMULUS FOCUSED NEAR THE
   CONVERGENCE AXIS...AMIDST A WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LACK OF EARLIER
   INSOLATION AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PREVENTED EVEN
   GREATER DESTABILIZATION FROM OCCURRING...THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MAY AID IN ENHANCING UPWARD PARCEL BUOYANCY.
   WHILE THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING
   ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO/ERN
   MANITOBA...WEAK FORCING FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE HAVING RECENTLY
   CROSSED LAKE MICHIGAN COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
   CONVECTION. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES -- ORTHOGONAL TO THE
   SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS -- WITHIN THE 2-6-KM-AGL LAYER WITH SPEEDS OF
   20 TO 35 KT PER GAYLORD MI VWP DATA COULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR AND
   POSSIBLY OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WITH THE CONVECTION. AN
   ISOLATED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY LARGE
   HAIL COULD ENSUE. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL
   LIKELY TEMPER THE SVR THREAT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   43168480 44108523 44998494 45158436 44638336 44138308
               43488290 43108348 43168480