MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242234Z - 250030Z
   
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS WITH
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES -- 2.10 TO 2.25 INCHES PER
   GPS DATA -- ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN VA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS. ONE FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
   IN ERN NC EXTENDING FROM PITT COUNTY TO ROBESON COUNTY. AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SURGING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC COULD
   EVENTUALLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN UPTICK IN THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN VA INTO NERN NC WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT
   FOR CONVECTION. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN VA IN AREAS WHERE
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS BEEN LIMITED ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES TO REMAIN STEEP. WHILE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE ABSENCE OF GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
   OWING TO THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY SVR
   THREAT ISOLATED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN
   AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT AND WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTING SLOW STORM MOTIONS. CONVECTION
   IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z IN RESPONSE TO STABILIZATION CAUSED
   BY NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   35357624 34467764 34257838 34427905 34827918 35207892
               35517872 35877876 36247899 36487929 37007924 37517873
               37787781 37537694 36777621 36047608 35357624