MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232217Z - 232345Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
   WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS EMANATING FROM WET
   MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR...THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   A HIGH-PWAT ENVIRONMENT -- PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES PER
   GPS DATA -- EXISTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC.
   THESE PWAT VALUES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. A
   NOTABLE BOUNDARY COLLISION FROM WARREN COUNTY TO RICHMOND COUNTY
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
   NC...WHILE A SEWD-SURGING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS
   OF SERN VA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUTSIDE OF
   CONVECTION...OWING TO SFC TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 102 DEGREES...WILL
   SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS...AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESS. WITH AREA
   VWP DATA DEPICTING GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT OF FLOW THROUGH THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT PULSE
   CHARACTERISTICS...WITH A NOTABLE WEAKENING TREND AFTER 00Z WHEN
   NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. ALSO OF NOTE...RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
   CONVECTION EXHIBITS LITTLE MOTION.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   34837943 36038004 36967990 37597941 37837826 37717685
               36517642 35287653 34467742 34387852 34837943