MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 232157Z - 232330Z
   
   IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF
   LINCOLN NEB MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
   MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  WHILE
   DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS...THE SMALL
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ACTIVITY
   APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD ALONG AN OLD
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF HIGH
   MOISTURE CONTENT /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
   PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE. 
   FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   00-02Z TIME FRAME...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
   ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION
   LOADING COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED STRONG
   DOWNBURSTS...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE UNSATURATED
   ENOUGH FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING A BROADER SCALE SWATH OF WINDS THAT COULD AT LEAST
   APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   41029597 41449542 41789386 41799303 41559166 41129140
               40579157 40409217 40389353 40339495 40229620 41029597