MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0906 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...LOWER LAKE MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...
   
   VALID 190206Z - 190300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF WW661...POSSIBLY
   DUE TO COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. 
   HOWEVER...A NEW STRONG UPDRAFT HAS EMERGED OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY IN
   SRN WI JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE.  THERE IS
   SOME RISK THAT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO
   EXTREME NRN IL ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  IF THIS OCCURS GUSTY WINDS
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   LAT...LON   43919083 43918781 42458702 42438994 43919083