MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN NY AND NW VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181958Z - 182130Z
   
   STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE
   MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN ONTARIO AND WRN
   QUEBEC. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE ACROSS
   NRN NY INTO NRN VT AS WELL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   MID 70S TO MID 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS RESULTED WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
   1000-1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VORTICITY MAX
   CURRENTLY OVER SRN QUEBEC MOVING E/SE AND COUPLED WITH FORCING FROM
   THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAY AID IN SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN
   NY/NW VT. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE EXTENT OF
   STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-40 KT.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 07/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   44877557 43257906 42647964 42297964 42027915 41917787
               42107636 42627421 43167349 43707317 44187291 44547277
               44817279 45007303 45157356 45107460 44877557