MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 181906Z - 182030Z
   
   IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT/
   
   SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY WITHIN A WEAK/DIFFUSE
   FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE CAPE HAS BECOME VERY
   LARGE FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
   MID/UPPER 70S.  MID-LEVELS ARE FAIRLY WARM AND FORCING TO AID
   UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   BENEATH 40+ KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN SMALL...BUT AT
   LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PROBABLY EXISTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   LAT...LON   45719222 46119136 46198996 45878822 45498744 44418784
               44548977 44739184 45019251 45719222