MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650...
   
   VALID 171601Z - 171730Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650
   CONTINUES.
   
   INFLOW FOR SUPERCELL EAST SOUTH OF MINOT ALMOST CERTAINLY IS NOW
   EMANATING FROM THE VERY MOIST AND STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
   THE NEAR SURFACE AMBIENT FLOW...BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG WESTERLIES. 
   AND IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STRONG STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
   MAINTAIN EASTWARD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CONTINUING
   GENERAL PRESENCE OF STRONG INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS. 
   SURFACE COLD POOL GROWTH/STRENGTHENING MAY BE SLOWED BY THE HIGH
   DEGREE OF SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...BUT A
   TRANSITION TOWARD MORE A DAMAGING WIND EVENT STILL SEEMS A
   POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE DEVILS LAKE AREA BY 18Z...AND
   GRAND FORKS AROUND 20Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   48159997 48409910 48349838 48279766 48019729 47549802
               47389892 47830026 48159997