MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND...NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 
   
   VALID 171524Z - 171630Z
   
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY... AND
   MODEST TO STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...PROBABILITIES FOR THE
   EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR
   TO BE INCREASING...EITHER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR NEW DEVELOPMENT
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A CATEGORICAL
   UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   48259981 48259722 47699532 47189467 46529467 46169523
               46139617 46739728 47500030 47950040 48259981