MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT INTO ND AND NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645...
   
   VALID 150754Z - 151000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645
   CONTINUES.
   
   ORIGINAL MCS CONTINUES NEWD CROSS W CNTRL ND...BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS
   OF WEAKENING WITH OUTFLOW SURGING QUICKLY EWD AND AS IT MOVES
   FARTHER INTO THE COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS
   TO THE S AND WITH A SLY LOW LEVEL JET...ANY STORM WILL HAVE HAIL
   POTENTIAL...BUT FURTHER MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY FROM ERN MT
   INTO CNTRL ND.
   
   TO THE E...STORMS HAVE QUICKLY GROWN UPSCALE ACROSS E CNTRL ND...IN
   A ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LAPSE RATE AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR LARGE
   HAIL AND OVERALL DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO FAVOR FURTHER STORM
   ORGANIZATION. DESPITE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT...HEAVY WATER LOADING AND MODERATE FLOW MAY LEAD TO
   AN EVENTUAL WIND THREAT. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   48930052 45130280 45120608 48910404 48930052