MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...NERN SD...CNTRL/SRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617...
   
   VALID 102225Z - 110000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 617 CONTINUES.
   
   DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES RISKS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A HIGH WIND/HAIL
   THREAT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/SRN MN LATER.  AN ADDITIONAL
   WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST CNTRL/SRN MN AFTER 23Z.
   
   SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT
   REGION OF A 100+ KT H25 JET HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR...FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS.  SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE AT AROUND 45-50 KTS AND IS
   EXTRAPOLATED TO THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 617 IN WCNTRL MN BY
   00Z.  18Z NAM AND VARIETY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS HAVE A GOOD
   HANDLE ON LOCATION/TIMING OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.  
   
   DOWNSTREAM...A CORRIDOR OF 70+ DEG F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
   STRONG HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RESERVOIR OF MLCAPES IN EXCESS
   OF 4000 J/KG OVER THE CORN BELT.  THE MCS WILL TRACK ALONG NRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN LATER THIS
   EVENING WITH THE TRAILING BAND SKIRTING ACROSS NERN SD.  WOOD LAKE
   PROFILER SHOWS ONLY WEAK SELY INFLOW...BUT STRONG COLD POOL
   GENERATION...MAGNITUDE OF LLVL MOISTURE AND 45+ KTS OF MID-LEVEL WLY
   FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   46030049 46410004 46589867 46789810 47039738 46909646
               46259435 45869336 45149297 44819299 44299312 43939355
               44209530 44309618 44719818 45250129 46030049