MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...ERN CO...FAR WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102102Z - 102300Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. ORGANIZATION MAY BE MESSY AT FIRST
   WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE
   LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
   AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NEB OR NWRN KS.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
   30-45 KT WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.
   THEREFORE...SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
   MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN BUT MORE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT ARE NOW
   FORMING OVER SWRN NEB INTO THE INCREASING UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR.
   MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-3000 J/KG FROM FAR ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/KS
   WILL HELP SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND GIVEN LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN A LACK OF FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON OTHER THAN STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
   RATHER ISOLATED UNTIL A ROUGHLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO
   INCREASE AROUND 00Z.
   
   ..LEITMAN.. 07/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   40420019 39310057 38240100 37470144 37170190 37100251
               37140316 37290378 37440411 37920420 38690419 40540327
               41640247 42150192 42370133 42350072 42080023 41940020
               41560009 40420019