MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN CO...NE NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN
   KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071917Z - 072015Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND SE CO THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES FROM
   THE PALMER DIVIDE SWD TO NEAR RATON PASS ON THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
   1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS SCNTRL AND SERN CO. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KTS ACROSS THE MCD AREA...LAPSE
   RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD
   PROMOTE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS STORMS CONGEAL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
   OF THE MTNS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   39360326 39660491 39430545 38620555 37770540 36430424
               36320300 36590209 37230133 38420144 38970199 39360326