MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SRN MO...CNTRL AND NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071854Z - 072000Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SE KS...SRN MO AND NRN TO
   CNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE
   REGION ONCE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS SE KS AND NW AR
   WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500
   J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MCD AREA
   BUT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONTINUED SFC
   HEATING. IN ADDITION...AN MCV IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
   WRN MO WITH THE SRN END EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SE KS. AS THIS FEATURE
   MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE AHEAD OF A CNTRL PLAINS COLD FRONT. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECASTS SUGGEST INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY FIRST IN CNTRL MO ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWWD ACROSS SW MO
   FROM 20Z AND 21Z. THE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO NW
   AND CNTRL AR WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED
   WITH 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
   VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS
   WILL LIKELY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...
   ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   35089176 35769130 36539125 37719150 38439229 38579305
               38519388 38339460 37949572 37539614 37079585 36289491
               34519433 34139351 34389227 35089176