MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/WRN OK...PORTIONS OF NORTH TX AND THE ERN
   TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 061904Z - 062130Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY AND POSSIBLY SVR WINDS THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.
   
   A COMPOSITE FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY EARLIER
   CONVECTION AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD POOL...NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL
   OK PANHANDLE TO NEAR OKC /WHERE THE SFC WIND HAS RECENTLY VEERED
   FROM NLY TO ELY/ INTO E-CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL AR. THIS FEATURE
   SEPARATES THE HOT...UNSTABLE...AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS OVER SRN OK
   AND PORTIONS OF NRN TX...WHERE TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES
   HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG...FROM A MORE MOIST
   YET COOLER AND MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FARTHER NORTH. THE CUMULUS
   FIELD NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MOST AGITATED OVER S-CNTRL
   OK...WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING PER AREA RADAR DATA.
   MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INVOF THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
   DESTABILIZATION...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   RESULTING IN DCAPE VALUES OF 1300 TO 1600 J/KG COULD SUPPORT
   MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   THIS THREAT COULD BE EXACERBATED BY SFC T-TD SPREADS NEARING 50F.
   HOWEVER...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OWING TO GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS
   OF FLOW IN THE LOW/MID-LEVELS PER AREA VWP DATA...AN ORGANIZED SVR
   STORM THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   33569660 34279927 35660147 36510212 36900182 36890111
               36669993 35619714 35039504 33869508 33569660