MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-CNTRL MO...NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061923Z - 062015Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED
   
   A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND NRN
   AR THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT
   WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE CERTAINTY
   INCREASES.
   
   A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SCNTRL MO SWD
   INTO NERN AR WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
   2500 TO 3000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUST
   BEGINNING TO BECOME STEEPEN ESPECIALLY OVER SE MO AND NE AR WHERE
   CONVECTION IS ONGOING. THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE AN ISOLATED THREAT
   FOR WET DOWNBURSTS. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS
   LOCATED ACROSS ERN KS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MCV AND
   CONTINUED SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SW MO. MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TO THE
   EAST. THIS SUGGESTS A MORE PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD
   DEVELOP ALTHOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL. AS THIS
   PROCESS CONTINUES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BECOMES ENHANCED AHEAD OF
   AN MCV OVER ERN KS...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35509030 36788976 37798978 38559024 38869125 38799205
               38809240 38769299 38549333 38269357 37899377 37499403
               36949431 36319382 35949318 35329133 35509030