MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN AZ...SERN CA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
   
   VALID 060428Z - 060630Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604
   CONTINUES.
   
   BLENDED TSTM COMPLEX...WHOSE SMALLER CONVECTIVE PREDECESSORS WERE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ
   OVER PAST 2-3 HOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WWD ACROSS
   LOWER CO VALLEY AREA WITH RISK OF FURTHER DAMAGING WIND.  MEASURED
   GUSTS FROM 50-57 KT OCCURRED AT GBN...CHD AND GYR SINCE 230Z. 
   ISOLATED SVR GUSTS MAY EXTEND ACROSS CO RIVER INTO SERN CA...HOWEVER
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT PLANNED ATTM. WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM E-W BEHIND
   THIS COMPLEX. 
   
   OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE MERGED WITH CONVECTION THAT ORIGINALLY HAD MOVED
   WNWWD ACROSS PORTIONS PIMA/PINAL/SWRN MARICOPA COUNTIES...AND
   FORMERLY SEPARATE CLUSTER MOVING SWWD OVER NWRN MARICOPA COUNTY. 
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING INVOF MERGER...OVER ERN PORTIONS LA
   PAZ/YUMA COUNTIES...WILL REINFORCE COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW WWD OVER
   REMAINDER OF YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES AND INTO PORTIONS
   IMPERIAL/RIVERSIDE/SERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES CA.  ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE AS FORCED ASCENT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
   OVERCOMES GRADUAL DIABATIC-COOLING RELATED INCREASE IN MLCINH.  THIS
   SHOULD RELEASE MLCAPE ESTIMATED 1500-2500 J/KG...BASED ON SFC DEW
   POINTS MID-60S F AND TEMPS STILL 90S TO LOW 100S...BASED ON
   MODIFICATIONS TO RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.  OVERALL SVR THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS RIVERSIDE/SRN SAN BERNARDINO
   COUNTIES AND FROM IMPERIAL VALLEY WWD...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
   CONTINUED STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
   
   LAT...LON   32621592 33221616 33691608 34061559 34181475 34091327
               33581275 33001285 32671383 32481480 32711470 32621592