MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS/NEB...EXTREME NERN CO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...602...603...
   
   VALID 060341Z - 060545Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   600...602...603...CONTINUES.
   
   ORIGINAL SERN NEB/NERN KS MCS DISSIPATED WHEN ITS OUTFLOW SURGED TOO
   FAR AHEAD OF GENERATIVE REFLECTIVITY.  ISOLATED SVR TSTM HAS FORMED
   ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OVER DICKINSON COUNTY KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS AS IT MOVES SWD OVER PORTIONS MARION/BUTLER
   COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG AND E OF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY'S INTERSECTION WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT OVER
   S-CENTRAL/SERN KS.
   
   AT 315Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED NEAR EMP-RSL-HLC-GLD LINE AND
   WAS MOVING SWWD 20-30 KT.  WITHOUT NEARBY CONVECTIVE
   REINFORCEMENT...OUTFLOW POOL IS GETTING MORE SHALLOW...ESPECIALLY
   OVER NRN KS.  POST-BOUNDARY THETAE DEFICIT OVER S-CENTRAL NEB AND
   NRN KS REMAINS SMALL ENOUGH THAT NEARLY SFC-BASED PARCELS STILL ARE
   EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS.  ACCORDINGLY...SUITABLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT N OF BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER
   60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG
   OVER EAR/HDE AREA TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG IN MCK-IML AREA...AHEAD OF
   COMPLEX MOVING EWD FROM NERN CO.  WRN MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND EXTREME NRN
   KS...PERHAPS MERGING WITH BAND OF SVR TSTMS NOW EVIDENT NEAR I-80
   BETWEEN HSI-LBF AND MOVING SSEWD.  GIVEN PROGGED
   FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL MCS MOTION VECTORS...MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR
   FOR RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED SVR NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
   FROM SWRN NEB ESEWD OVER N-CENTRAL KS AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL NEB.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   39930264 41150214 41240013 40819836 40079753 39659664
               38869534 37879560 37809699 38789917 39640188 39930264