MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NEB...NWRN TO EXTREME W-CENTRAL MO...SWRN
   IA...EXTREME ERN CO...NRN AND ERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...
   
   VALID 060007Z - 060200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600
   CONTINUES.
   
   TSTM COMPLEX OVER SERN NEB MAY EXPAND/INTENSIFY FURTHER WITH
   ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD
   TOP-MKC CORRIDOR.  AREAS SE OF WW WILL EB MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
   WW.  MEANWHILE...ERN PORTIONS WW 600 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND
   MCS...WITH ANY ELEVATED TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER COLD POOL POSING
   MRGL/DISORGANIZED HAIL THREAT AT BEST.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN CO NEWD
   OVER MCK AREA THEN SEWD BETWEEN CNK-SLN...TO SERN KS.  STGLY
   DIFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW IS EVIDENT S AND SE OF THIS COMPLEX FROM
   NERN KS NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY...AS WELL AS RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S F SUPPORTING PLUME OF 3000-4000
   J/KG MLCAPE.  GIVEN VERY HIGH ANTECEDENT THETAE OF AIR MASS NEAR SFC
   OVER THIS AREA...DIABATIC COOLING/STABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER
   SLOW...AND SFC-BASED INFLOW WILL PROJECT VERY BUOYANT PARCELS UP
   LEADING EDGE OF ANY COLD-POOL SURGE THAT MAY DEVELOP FROM UPSCALE
   GROWTH OF SERN NEB CONVECTION.  FCST FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL MCS
   MOTION VECTORS INDICATING MOST PROBABLE TRACK THROUGH CURRENT
   LOCATION OF MOIST AXIS AND E OF FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS NERN KS AND
   NWRN/W-CENTRAL MO.  SOME BACKBUILDING TOWARD S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB
   MOIST AXIS ALSO IS POSSIBLE...WHICH EFFECTIVELY WOULD FILL IN SVR
   THREAT ACROSS WW WITH REGARD TO HIGH-PLAINS REGIME DISCUSSED BELOW.
   
   FARTHER W...UPSLOPE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO MAY YIELD EWD-MOVING COMPLEX
   THAT MAY EFFECT WRN PORTIONS WW THIS EVENING.  REF SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 1513 FOR DETAILS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   39580192 41270217 41770212 41609961 41279827 40849780
               40799647 41129540 39809430 38789422 38439482 38429645
               39539803 39580192