MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO AND SRN PANHANDLE OF
   NEB...ADJOINING W SIDE OF WW 600.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 052319Z - 060015Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   MAINLY W OF WW 600...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   COMPLEX SFC MESOANALYSIS FEATURES HEAT LOW OVER SERN CO NEAR
   LAA...AND S OF  QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM NEAR COS-LIC-MCK-CNK.  N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...DEEP/PERSISTENT NELY FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   ADVECT/TRANSPORT FAVORABLE MOISTURE UPSLOPE...MAINTAINED IN PART BY
   SERN CO LOW.  THIS PROCESS ALSO ENHANCES BOTH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR EWD-MOVING CONVECTION N OF FRONT.  DESPITE
   MODEST 700-500 MB LAYER WINDS...STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTRIBUTES TO
   35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS EFFECTIVE SRN BOUND FOR SVR
   THREAT...GIVEN HOT/DEEPLY-MIXED AIR TO ITS S WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE CAPE.  BY CONTRAST...ZONAL
   SFC MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM CYS RIDGE EWD SUPPORTS MLCAPE RANGING
   FROM AROUND 3500 J/KG OVER SWRN NEB TO 1500 J/KG OVER IBM/SNY
   REGION.  AS OF 23Z...CONVECTION WAS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE
   DENSE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN WELD COUNTY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   UPSCALE GROWTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   39770250 39010467 41060398 41540261 40050201 39770250