MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 270558Z - 270730Z
   
   A NEW WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  SEVERE WATCHES 561 AND 564
   MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME FOR AFFECTED ILLINOIS PORTIONS.
   
   SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE
   SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE PAST HOUR
   OR SO.  WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN
   INTENSITY...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   TO WEAKEN AS IT INGESTS AIR FROM A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
   CENTRAL INDIANA.  SIMILAR TRENDS MAY TAKE PLACE SHORTLY WITH THE
   MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROPAGATING
   TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS AREA...AT LEAST FOR AREAS OF ILLINOIS NORTH AND
   EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS.
   
   IT MAY BE THAT NEW/STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
   OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA
   BECOMES ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BETWEEN NOW
   AND 07-09Z.  ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40-60+ KT SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET.  AND...AS A SURFACE COLD POOL CONGEALS AND
   STRENGTHENS...SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE INFLOW EMANATING FROM A
   WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
   COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASING
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEAR/EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
   METROPOLITAN AREA.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   39189599 39929504 39579324 39379250 39829187 40389147
               40979089 40309002 40078931 40408838 40238770 39548689
               38008819 37629109 38109267 38279432 38309514 38789590
               39189599