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Mesoscale Discussion 1412 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270433Z - 270530Z
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF WW 562 BY 05Z WHERE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD PERSIST INTO A PORTION OF ERN NEB. IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THREAT WARRANT
ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
BOWING SEGMENT ALONG NRN END OF A LINE OF WEAKER STORMS IS MOVING
EWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB AT 40 KT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ZONE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE OVER ERN NEB REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER.
BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THE STORMS COULD CONTINUE A WHILE
LONGER. HOWEVER...UNLESS MORE STORMS BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ON SRN
FLANK...COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS MIGHT NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANOTHER WW.
..DIAL.. 06/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41689936 42209891 41689765 40939747 40659846 40829913
41169967 41689936
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