MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...WRN SD AND SWRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252321Z - 260045Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED
   STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY
   DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG A
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN ND INTO EXTREME NWRN SD AND NRN WY AS
   WELL AS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND SRN WY...SPREADING EWD INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS
   AREA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING SO FAR DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST
   AND APPARENTLY ARE STRUGGLING WITH A CAP ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
   ADVECTING EML. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE
   WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING FOR
   ASCENT RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN
   FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND 40-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...POTENTIAL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
   SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   HOWEVER...DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   44910357 45410334 46310260 46140130 44570015 42439982
               41540161 41580375 42560387 43000394 44220397 44910357