MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252024Z - 252130Z
   
   A FEW SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ND
   INVOF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NWRN ND INTO SERN MT.
   NEAR AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE
   COMMON...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS LACKING IN
   THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SFC DIABATIC HEATING COULD RESULT IN
   CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/DEEPENING OF CONVECTION. WITH THIS REGION ON
   THE ERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
   TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENT CENTERED OVER ERN MT...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KT COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   A SVR THREAT. MULTICELLULAR AND OCCASIONALLY SUPERCELLULAR MODES MAY
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...AND
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
   SVR TSTM WATCH.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   LAT...LON   47480335 48890229 48929981 47909908 46150043 46070291
               46670352 47480335