MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN MO...PARTS OF WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 250851Z - 251015Z
   
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
   OF EASTERN MISSOURI.  THIS IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   A BROAD ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...WITH WARMER
   AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR INHIBITING STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. 
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THIS INHIBITION...BUT
   IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY ZONE OF STORM INITIATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS
   NORTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI...WHERE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
   APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH 12-14Z.  HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
   MAY BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH/EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN
   AREA...AS THE PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER TO A
   MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
   STRONG BENEATH 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT SOMEWHAT MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING CAPE...AND
   ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   40589442 40549249 38958993 36618920 36439088 38019227
               38749351 39279416 40589442