MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL/SERN NEB...PARTS OF NRN KS...NW MO AND SW
   IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 250646Z - 250815Z
   
   PROBABILITIES FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE REMAIN LOW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE
   40-50 KT SOUTHERLY PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THROUGH THE CREST OF
   BROADER SCALE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGING...HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION
   SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ONGOING INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR THE KEARNEY/GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AREA.  SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT
   OF THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION PERSIST...BUT STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODESTLY LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   IN THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME...LARGE HAIL
   APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE MISSOURI
   RIVER...SOUTH OF OMAHA...BETWEEN NOW AND 09-11Z.  A RELATIVELY COOL
   AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO
   DOWNBURSTS.  BUT ORGANIZING CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY GENERATE A
   STRONG COLD POOL...AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY NOT BE
   ABLE TO BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED.  EASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IMPINGING ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL
   MAY PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
   BUOYANCY OSCILLATION...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   40849940 41189839 41089741 40749603 40489516 39999482
               39649545 39799716 40219881 40409927 40849940