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Mesoscale Discussion 1378 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS/AL/GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242220Z - 242345Z
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SWD/SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL/GA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A MERGER
WITH THE REMNANT SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING. A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY S OF WATCH 546.
A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD/SEWD TOWARD
CENTRAL MS/AL/GA ON A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. S OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A FEW NEW STORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP S OF THE INITIAL LINE/CLUSTER...AND ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
OUTFLOW. THOUGH ONLY WEAK NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT...THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DCAPE OF 1200-1500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE
OUTFLOW MAY PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH S TO MERGE WITH THE REMNANT SEA
BREEZE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEFORE SUNSET
AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.
..THOMPSON.. 06/24/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 31478811 31448900 31588980 31889025 32509042 32639025
32739002 32598871 33058735 33328614 33348553 33618465
33708388 33558344 32958351 32428391 31888502 31478811
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