MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN/CNTRL MS...NRN/CNTRL AL...SERN
   TN...NRN GA...FAR WRN SC...FAR SWRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546...
   
   VALID 242042Z - 242215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546
   CONTINUES.
   
   MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF
   AN INCREASINGLY INDISTINGUISHABLE SFC FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS.
   CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
   MS INTO NWRN AL...AND ACROSS NERN AL INTO NWRN GA. WITH THIS
   CONVECTION BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
   CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE /PER AREA VWP DATA/...THE PRIMARY
   MECHANISM FOR MAINTAINING CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE THE
   INTERACTION OF COLD POOL CIRCULATIONS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   /MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J PER KG/. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   WILL MAINTAIN PROPAGATION OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR
   SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
   DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG...PARTICULARLY WHERE MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED.
   
   OUTSIDE OF WW546...A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORM
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST:
   1. EAST OF WW546 INTO PORTIONS OF NERN GA...FAR WRN SC...AND FAR
   SWRN NC...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AMIDST A
   MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO
   SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THIS REGION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
   STRONGER COLD POOL FORCING...AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO ENSUE.
   2. WEST OF WW546 IN PORTIONS OF SERN AR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO
   COULD DEVELOP INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM
   EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW NATURE
   OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST
   CONVECTIVE THREAT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   34359222 34529110 34798880 35228663 35908455 35398300
               34638223 33858272 33358389 32838681 32378851 32608984
               33049114 33379220 33739258 34359222