MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OH...NRN AND CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...
   
   VALID 222236Z - 222330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538
   CONTINUES.
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OH
   AND MAY DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME INTO NRN AND CNTRL KY. THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IT APPEARS THAT WW ISSUANCE WILL
   NOT BE NECESSARY AFTER THE 23Z EXPIRATION OF WW 538.
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM SE LOWER MI
   SSWWD ACROSS WRN OH INTO FAR SE IND. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A
   WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES
   ARE IN THE 750 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A 50 TO 65 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED OVER THE OH VALLEY WHICH IS HELPING TO
   CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE
   EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
   OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT
   LINE-SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO
   THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   41888286 41868369 41538423 41208439 40108485 39388522
               38458603 38008612 37628553 37608449 38798323 39968261
               41468219 41888286