MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0440 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SE NY...NEW YORK CITY...SW CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 222140Z - 222315Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN NJ...FAR SE NY...NEW YORK
   CITY AND SRN CT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
   AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN FAR ERN PA AND NJ
   LOCATED A WARM FRONT AND AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORMS
   ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX ANALYZED
   BY THE RUC AT 700 MB FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
   COAST INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. THE SPEED MAX IS HELPING TO
   ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWING
   35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STORMS ARE
   DISCRETE. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AREA LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...
   
   LAT...LON   40577330 40947300 41267294 41447307 41607359 41527424
               41397462 40887500 40537512 40067513 39847500 39757487
               39717440 40137387 40577330