MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY THROUGH MIDDLE AND ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...
   
   VALID 192012Z - 192215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE IND WITH
   ASSOCIATED TRAILING CONVERGENCE BANDS EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KY
   AND NRN MIDDLE TN. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES TO 2000 J/KG
   MLCAPE WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD MIDDLE TN WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC
   WARMING HAS OCCURRED. INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE TN
   WEAKENED AS THEY CROSSED INTO THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN ERN TN. HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS ARE TRYING TO FORM
   FARTHER WEST ALONG CONVERGENCE BANDS ACROSS S-CNTRL KY INTO NRN
   MIDDLE TN. THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING
   SEVERE SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE. ONCE
   THE STORMS ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME
   SUPERCELLULAR WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR.
   A RESERVOIR OF 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
   EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
   TN AND KY. THE SURFACE LAYER IS STILL SOMEWHAT COOL AND STABLE EAST
   OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT IS GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME. THEREFORE...A
   WINDOW STILL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SUPERCELLS THAT
   DEVELOP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD AND INTERACT
   WITH THE BOUNDARY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   36938584 36938379 36288344 35228417 35108482 35208553
               35968700 36938584