MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK/TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 191916Z - 192015Z
   
   SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG THE DRYLINE /PRIMARILY OVER WRN TX/ THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
   GREATER THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE BECOME APPARENT...A WW MAY BE
   NECESSARY. DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORM
   THAT DEVELOPS...WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAP EXISTS /16-17 C AT 700 MB PER 12Z AREA
   SOUNDINGS/...ONCE AGAIN HOT TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE DRYLINE
   /108 F CHILDRESS...105 F LUBBOCK...101 F SNYDER/ WILL GRADUALLY
   ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING DRY
   ADIABATIC TO ABOUT 500 MB. SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING IS NOW
   PROGRESSING EWD...WHILE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO
   GLANCE THE DRYLINE. 6 KM PROFILE DATA INDICATES A JET MAX /50 TO 60
   KT/ PROGRESSING INTO ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. INCREASINGLY
   /ALBEIT SUBTLY/ FAVORABLE UPPER ASCENT IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...WITH EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
   SUGGESTING RAPID DEVELOPMENT ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32170167 32340233 32790206 33500139 34170100 34670048
               34939992 34819950 34419936 33750026 32910084 32170167