MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 162041Z - 162145Z
   
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH SHOULD MORE ORGANIZATION OF CURRENT
   STORMS OCCUR...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. DMGG WINDS AND HAIL WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   A REMNANT AND NEARLY STATIONARY MCV MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO PROGRESS
   ESEWD AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER WAVE ON 2030Z WV IMAGERY OVER
   SWRN MO/NERN OK. THIS MAY PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN AR...AND ANY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
   AR COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CU
   FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT...WHILE SURFACE WIND FIELDS SHOW VIRTUALLY NO
   CONFLUENCE TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION IS MUDDLED AT THE MOMENT...AND WOULD LIKELY RELY ON THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL FROM THE SERN AR CONVECTION. SHOULD MORE
   ORGANIZATION OCCUR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON THE 18Z
   LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING /NEAR 8 C/KM /...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR PULSE SEVERE AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS
   AND HAIL.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   34819067 33359113 33189217 33519359 34369440 34919389
               35199282 34819067