MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 162037Z - 162200Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND THE
   TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS INCREASING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP
   MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   INITIALLY DEVELOP WHERE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100F AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
   MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S SUPPORTING HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A
   WEAKLY CAPPED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
   INTO SWRN KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
   FOR MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 50S
   DEWPOINTS/ AND STRONGER INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE IN PLACE
   ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
   STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM SWRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK LATER THIS EVENING.
   GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THE PRIMARY THREATS
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...EXCEPT
   POSSIBLY LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY INTERACT WITH
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS W-CNTRL KS WHERE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
   BE A LITTLE GREATER.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35750091 37000106 37660143 37910107 37810009 37009918
               35719918 34369977 33890046 34170099 35750091