MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN KY...NWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 151913Z - 152115Z
   
   STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT...A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.
   
   STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE NOW NEAR A LOW DRYLINE/LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CNTRL IL SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER. HEATING
   PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...AND CAPPING HAS BEEN
   REMOVED. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOES EXIST ACROSS ERN IL INTO SWRN IND
   AND CNTRL KY...WITH COOLER AND STABLE AIR TO THE E. THIS IS
   RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW MOIST SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL IL...BUT
   WIDENING OVER WRN KY.
   
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MEAGER WITH WINDS
   VEERING/MIXING. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL.
   LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THE
   EFFECTIVE ZONE WHERE PARCELS WOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE MAY BE QUITE
   NARROW. STORMS WOULD HAVE TO TURN SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE RIGHT NEAR
   THIS BOUNDARY IN ORDER TO HAVE AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   40138842 39268814 38588783 38198729 37758642 37008644
               36428704 36378766 36358891 36378921 36568947 36999002
               37588989 38258960 39418918 39978909 40218895 40258863
               40138842