MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NRN TX...CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 151857Z - 152000Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
   REGION...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT
   IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
   
   TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
   WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE 60S F. STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN
   PLACE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS WELL. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE THE LIKELY THREATS.
   
   WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS OF
   DILATATION...ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM. GIVEN EXPECTED COVERAGE...A
   WATCH IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON A
   LOCAL LEVEL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   34819243 34179281 33549341 33029464 32809755 33109930
               33860052 34480038 34909974 34929689 35029426 35129301
               35029260 34819243