MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE / NWRN OK / S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 132051Z - 132245Z
   
   ISOLD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD
   INTO S-CNTRL KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
    ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   MICROBURSTS--WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREAT IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD.
   
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE/DRYLINE
   EXTENDING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO A LOW OVER CNTRL KS.  A
   HOT/VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
   ISOLD STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A PLUME OF EXTREMELY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES /AOA 9.5 DEG C SURFACE-H5/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
   TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS.  18Z LMN RAOB SUGGESTS TEMPS
   105-110 DEG F WILL BE NEEDED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  COMPOSITE
   LMN RAOB/KVNX VAD DATA /0-6 KM SHEAR 30+ KTS/ SUGGEST SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR...DESPITE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE
   EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
   J/KG WILL SUPPORT STORMS TO BE POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE
   MICROBURSTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   37879868 38089782 37719707 37099706 35089996 35080079
               35410118 36000113 36320068 37879868