MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO / CNTRL AR / NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...
   
   VALID 132025Z - 132100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472
   CONTINUES.
   
   A LINGERING LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND
   WW 472 EXPIRATION TIME OF 21Z.  EITHER A LOCAL WW EXTENSION-IN-TIME
   OR A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE SEVERE RISK.
   
   SURFACE/RADAR ANALYSIS PLACES A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD
   INTO CNTRL AR AND SWRN MO RESULTANT FROM SWD MOVING STORM COMPLEX IN
   NRN MS AND ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY CONVECTIVELY REINFORCING THE
   BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL AR.  THE AIRMASS WELL REMOVED
   FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NERN AR AND THE GREATER MEMPHIS AREA
   APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED BY PRIOR STORMS. 
   HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS ARE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
   ADJACENT TO THE BOUNDARY ARE MAINTAINING NEAR SURFACE-BASED PARCEL
   INFLOW.  GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A SUPERCELL
   SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILE...LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   TO BE A THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/13/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   34109194 34999292 35949340 36879337 37169263 36909175
               35909111 35009052 34649010 34318889 33908885 33929026
               33999141 34109194