MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN VA...INCLUDING RICHMOND/NORFOLK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 101739Z - 101915Z
   
   THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED...WITH AT LEAST A LOCALIZED/SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
   THREAT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE WITH INSOLATION...WITH INHIBITION BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   NEGLIGIBLE.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A POCKET OF MIXED LAYER
   CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG...NEAR A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX
   DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREA.  STORM
   INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...AND
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A SMALL STORM CLUSTER
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG DOWNBURST
   OR TWO.  DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...BUT
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING STEEP...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   37967747 38277646 37417589 36667590 36857698 36877794
               37237832 37967747