MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...INDIANA...SRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 101710Z - 101845Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
   
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS STILL CLEAR...BUT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F IS BECOMING RATHER
   UNSTABLE WITH HEATING...NEAR A STALLED SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.  LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE
   IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE.
    ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING NEAR
   THE CINCINNATI AREA...WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM A DECAYING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS.  AND...DEEPENING DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
   BE UNDERWAY WITHIN ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WEST
   NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE INDIANAPOLIS IND AREA TOWARD DANVILLE
   IL...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ST. LOUIS MO AREA.  A WEAKENING
   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ST.
   LOUIS AREA...AND COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE RATHER MODEST
   /GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT/...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED
   BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF
   1.5 INCHES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT.  CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE
   TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER...AND A
   BROADER SCALE THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
   LSX...
   
   LAT...LON   40208855 40738766 41258709 41558649 41118514 40328434
               39998345 39208273 38618333 38838500 38858648 38498791
               39038914 39568909 40208855