MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB..NE KS...NRN MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 453...454...455...
   
   VALID 100043Z - 100215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   453...454...455...CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEATHER WATCHES 453...454 AND
   455 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL HAVE A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO
   EXIST ESPECIALLY IN ERN KS...FAR SE NEB AND NRN MO WHERE THE TORNADO
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   A CLUSTER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING IN ECNTRL KS ALONG AN
   AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500
   J/KG RANGE. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY
   CLOSE TO A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX EVIDENT ON MESOANALYSIS. AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO THREAT
   SHOULD INCREASE AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
   WSR-88D VWPS IN ERN KS...SE NEB AND NW MO SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITIES IN THE 200 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED
   STRONG TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY
   OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
   ALSO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS IS
   SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS.
   
   FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WW 455...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS
   ONGOING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE WATCH IN NRN MO ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE HAVE A POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW 455
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR ENABLING THE WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   EXPIRATION..
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38039506 38049591 38139589 38179628 38539627 38519689
               38609691 38589730 40659728 40659688 41019685 41029642
               40799647 40789584 40909580 40889264 40599264 40579231
               39259231 39269243 38689256 38709304 38569306 38519347
               38569349 38589404 38469404 38519468 38379468 38379506
               38069509 38039506