MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450...452...
   
   VALID 092317Z - 100015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   450...452...CONTINUES.
   
   LARGE SQUALL LINE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH SRN
   FLANK ARCING BACK TO THE W ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO NRN NJ AND
   ERN PA...WHERE THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM SVR THREAT WILL EXIST. A
   POCKET OF VERY HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS REMAINS IN PLACE
   ACROSS CNTRL NJ AND FAR SERN PA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AS
   THEY PROGRESS EWD. PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DMGG WIND
   GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   FARTHER N...TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED OVER ERN NY/CNTRL VT AND ERN ME. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
   THIS AREA HAS GENERALLY STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR CONVECTION
   WITH SOME MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
   DESPITE COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES /60S-70S/...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN
   PLACE TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WITH MODERATELY
   STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...A THREAT FOR STRONG-MARGINALLY SVR
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING
   LEADS TO A DIMINISHING SVR THREAT. ATTM...IT APPEARS SVR WW 450 MAY
   BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   38667544 40417662 41067675 42137479 43427478 45157046
               45696864 45626782 45146739 42567051 38667544